Favorite Saved

JCO INTERVIEWS

The Dunning-Kruger Effect

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias, or thinking error, that leads individuals with low competence to overestimate their abilities. Identified by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in a 1999 study,1 this phenomenon occurs because inexperienced individuals tend to lack the self-awareness needed to recognize their own shortcomings. As they gain more knowledge about a subject, their initial overconfidence fades, making way for the development of true expertise.

For instance, young orthodontists with many academic accomplishments but little clinical experience might approach complex cases with confidence, but over time, unexpected challenges—such as growth-related changes, root resorption, periodontal complications, or the complexities of patient personalities—will expose the gaps in their understanding. Early in my own career, I was overly confident in my abilities, believing I was more skilled than the orthodontists around me. I quickly dismissed the value of premolar extractions, orthognathic surgery, and conservative treatment plans. Unaware of how much I still had to learn, I held others to a harsher standard than I ever applied to myself.

In popular culture, the Dunning-Kruger effect is often illustrated with a graph that demonstrates the initial inverse relationship between confidence and competence (Fig. 1). Confidence (Y-axis) rises sharply at low levels of competence (X-axis), forming a peak informally known as “Mount Stupid,” where individuals grossly overestimate their abilities. As they become aware of their limitations, their confidence plummets into the “Valley of Despair,” only to climb gradually as mastery develops.

What I like most about the graph is its resemblance to an iceberg. Much of the learning process is hidden beneath the surface, underestimated by those with limited experience. The iceberg’s tip, visible to neophytes, represents surface-level achievements such as income or case starts. The bulk of the iceberg—comprising the skills, struggles, and insight required to become a great orthodontist—remains unseen until you dive deeper.

If you find yourself slipping into the “Valley of Despair” a few years into practice, my advice is to go easy on yourself. These struggles are a natural part of maturation, especially when your intentions are good. After all, the downward slope of the graph is where the most valuable learning occurs—the bitter lessons of experience that help shape identity. Embracing humility with determination is the quickest way to begin your ascent.

Fig. 1 Conceptual illustration of Dunning-Kruger effect, showing “iceberg of learning.”

Looking back at my career, I realize my trajectory was a classic example of the Dunning-­Kruger effect—I thought I knew it all. Only after repeated failures did I learn to approach my work with greater self-awareness and begin to evolve as an orthodontist. It was a challenging period, but it shaped the character I’m proud of today. As you work toward your own professional development, keep this principle in mind: Ego kills growth. Now read that again, right to left.

REFERENCES

  • 1.   Kruger, J. and Dunning, D.: Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments, J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 77:1121-34, 1999.

COMMENTS

.

There was a problem...

Fig. 1 Females who have more convex, shorter lower faces and protrusive lips, and who generally appear more immature, are considered more attractive than sex-corrected averages. Actress Sarah Michelle Geller demonstrates this type of feminine-accentuated face in computer drawing made from photograph.
Fig. 2 Upper-to-lower facial dimensions (Gl-Sn/Sn-Me) in ratio of 1:1 (lower face may be slightly longer in males). B. Another way to evaluate lower facial height (Or-Ch), with same 1:1 ratio.
Fig. 3 Posed smile does not demonstrate happiness, is highly variable, and is not reproducible; characteristically, facial muscles surrounding eyes do not contract.
Fig. 4 Natural smile shows crinkling around eyes as orbicularis oculi contract; corners of mouth are usually brought upward and backward.
Fig. 5 Smile variation in subject who has typical vertical dimension in centric occlusion with lips closed. A. Lower vertical height compared to Gl-Sn (Fig. 2A). B. Lower vertical height compared to Or-Ch (Fig. 2B). C. Lips relaxed: Note normal interlabial gap of several millimeters and typical incisor exposure, with central incisal edges 3mm below upper lip. D. "Mona Lisa" smile: Posed smiles do not always display teeth. E. Medium-intensity smile. F. High-intensity smile, where subject is simulating natural smile: Corners of mouth are driven upward and laterally, and upper lip is moved upward. Gingival exposure is not a clinical problem, since vertical dimension and proportions are normal, lip length is adequate, and incisor exposure is normal in relaxed lip position. Orthodontist could misdiagnose based on this broad and healthy smile, which general public considers desirable.
Fig. 6 Although smile arc is supposed to follow curvature of lower lip, cant of occlusal plane changes as head posture moves upward, so that less curvature is seen in smile arc.
Fig. 7 Two well-known actresses who are generally considered to have attractive smiles display posterior black holes. Actress with considerable gingival display during smiling does not have vertical problem, but is simply good at simulating natural smile, which brings upper lip superiorly.

REFERENCES 2

DR. RAVINDRA NANDA BDS, MDS, PhD

DR. RAVINDRA  NANDA BDS, MDS, PhD

DR. CHARLES J. BURSTONE DDS, MS

DR. CHARLES J.  BURSTONE DDS, MS

My Account

This is currently not available. Please check back later.

Please contact heather@jco-online.com for any changes to your account.